Today’s Rasmussen Daily Tracking poll has Mike Huckabee on top

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Mike Huckabee on top–at least for the moment–in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination. It’s Huckabee 23%, John McCain 22%, Mitt Romney 15%, Rudy Giuliani 12%, and Fred Thompson 11%. Ron Paul attracts 2% support (see recent daily numbers).

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The overwhelming majority of interviews for today’s update were conducted before results of the Michigan Primary were known. The next update is scheduled for Thursday at 11:00 a.m.

Romney’s victory in Michigan last night further muddles the Republican race. It is once again easy to show how each of the leading candidates can lose the nomination while difficult to see a clear path to victory for anyone. A Rasmussen Reports analysis notes that the exit polling highlights the challenges facing John McCain, particularly on the issues of taxes and immigration.

Romney won in Michigan partly because of his local ties. But, also by focusing on the economy at a time when consumer and investor confidence has fallen to the lowest levels in five years—73% of Americans now believe the economy is getting worse.

Polling conducted before Michigan shows McCain leading in South Carolina and Fred Thompson gaining ground. Rasmussen Reports is polling in South Carolina again tonight. In Florida, four Republican candidates essentially tied for the lead. A commentary by Michelle Malkin says she is looking for a Suck-it-Up candidate to support in the GOP race.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s now Clinton 37%, Obama 29% and John Edwards 16% (see recent daily numbers). In Michigan, Clinton lost badly to African-American voters who preferred “Uncommitted.” Rasmussen Reports polling has found that Clinton has a solid lead among white voters nationally while Obama leads 4-to-1 among African-Americans.

A commentary by Susan Estrich looks at the issue of “Race in the Race.” A new survey released today shows that just 54% of Americans say their peers are willing to vote for a woman for President. Fifty-six percent (56%) say their family, friends, and co-workers are willing to vote for an African-American. There is a strong generation gap on these questions.

Looking down the road a bit, Clinton is gaining ground in South Carolina and holds a solid lead in Florida.

Rasmussen Markets data gives Clinton a 59.1contract_id = 68178;node_id = 7607 + “_” + 8092;new Ajax(“/extension/ajax/intrade_lastprice.php”, {data: ‘contractID=’ + contract_id,method: ‘get’,update: $(‘intrade_’ + node_id)}).request();% chance of winning the Democratic nomination and Obama a 39.2contract_id = 68180;node_id = 7608 + “_” + 9638;new Ajax(“/extension/ajax/intrade_lastprice.php”, {data: ‘contractID=’ + contract_id,method: ‘get’,update: $(‘intrade_’ + node_id)}).request();% chance. On the Republican side, McCain is now given a 35.2contract_id = 68214;node_id = 7615 + “_” + 9474;new Ajax(“/extension/ajax/intrade_lastprice.php”, {data: ‘contractID=’ + contract_id,method: ‘get’,update: $(‘intrade_’ + node_id)}).request();% chance of winning the nomination. Mitt Romney is at 19.0contract_id = 68215;node_id = 7613 + “_” + 6060;new Ajax(“/extension/ajax/intrade_lastprice.php”, {data: ‘contractID=’ + contract_id,method: ‘get’,update: $(‘intrade_’ + node_id)}).request();% followed by Giuliani at 22.2contract_id = 68217;node_id = 7612 + “_” + 1117;new Ajax(“/extension/ajax/intrade_lastprice.php”, {data: ‘contractID=’ + contract_id,method: ‘get’,update: $(‘intrade_’ + node_id)}).request();%, Mike Huckabee at 13.8contract_id = 68216;node_id = 7614 + “_” + 7247;new Ajax(“/extension/ajax/intrade_lastprice.php”, {data: ‘contractID=’ + contract_id,method: ‘get’,update: $(‘intrade_’ + node_id)}).request();%, and Fred Thompson at 3.1contract_id = 84651;node_id = 7670 + “_” + 2445;new Ajax(“/extension/ajax/intrade_lastprice.php”, {data: ‘contractID=’ + contract_id,method: ‘get’,update: $(‘intrade_’ + node_id)}).request();%. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market. Prospects for South Carolina, Nevada, and Florida are featured on the Rasmussen Markets Summary page.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. Each update includes approximately 750 Likely Democratic Primary Voters and 600 Likely Republican Primary Voters. Margin of sampling error for each is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Each Monday, full week results are released based upon a seven-day rolling average. While the daily tracking result are useful for measuring quick reaction to events in the news, the full week results provide an effective means for evaluating longer-term trends. Rasmussen Reports also provides a weekly analysis of both the Republican and Democratic race each Monday.

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5 Responses to “Today’s Rasmussen Daily Tracking poll has Mike Huckabee on top”

  1. John McCain » Blog Archive » Today’s Rasmussen Daily Tracking poll has Mike Huckabee on top Says:

    […] Scarce wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptA Rasmussen Reports analysis notes that the exit polling highlights the challenges facing John McCain, particularly on the issues of taxes and immigration. Romney won in Michigan partly because of his local ties. … […]

  2. John Mccain » Today’s Rasmussen Daily Tracking poll has Mike Huckabee on top Says:

    […] billgarcia wrote an interesting post today on Todayâs Rasmussen Daily Tracking poll has Mike Huckabee on topHere’s a quick excerptA Rasmussen Reports analysis notes that the exit polling highlights the challenges facing John McCain, particularly on the issues of taxes and immigration. Romney won in Michigan partly because of his local ties. … […]

  3. Fred Thompson » Today’s Rasmussen Daily Tracking poll has Mike Huckabee on top Says:

    […] billgarcia wrote an interesting post today on Todayâs Rasmussen Daily Tracking poll has Mike Huckabee on topHere’s a quick excerptPolling conducted before Michigan shows McCain leading in South Carolina and Fred Thompson gaining ground. Rasmussen Reports is polling in South Carolina again tonight. In Florida, four Republican candidates essentially tied for the … […]

  4. Mike Huckabee - News about the Mike Huckabee Campaign » Today’s Rasmussen Daily Tracking poll has Mike Huckabee on top Says:

    […] Rasmussen Daily Tracking poll has Mike Huckabee on top Chris & Esther Hilling wrote an interesting post today onHere’s a quick excerptThe Rasmussen Reports daily […]

  5. Winghunter Says:

    What’s this about?

    Huckabee: Amend Constitution to be in ‘God’s standards’
    http://rawstory.com/news/2007/Huckabee_Amend_Constitution_to_meet_Gods_0115.html


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