Huckabee, Obama Gain at National Level
These results are from the latest USA Today/Gallup poll of national adults, conducted Jan. 4-6, 2008. All interviews were conducted following Huckabee’s and Obama’s wins in Iowa last Thursday night. Results from Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary may produce still further changes in the national standing of the candidates.
Among Republicans, Huckabee has jumped from 16% of the vote in December 2007 to 25% as of this polling. Coupled with the loss of support for former front-runner Rudy Giuliani, Huckabee is now the leader among Republicans nationally, with a 5-point lead over Giuliani and 6-point lead over John McCain (who has gained 5 points since December). Mitt Romney, after failing to win in Iowa, is now in fifth place nationally with just 9% of the vote, which is his lowest percentage since early October.
Source: USA Today/Gallup
In the roller-coaster race for the Republican Presidential Nomination, it’s Mike Huckabee 21%, Mitt Romney 19%,McCain 18%, Rudy Giuliani 13%, and Fred Thompson at 11%. Ron Paul attracts 4% support (see recent daily numbers). A Rasmussen Reports analysis suggests that if McCain wins in New Hampshire, the race will finally have a clear frontrunner.
Real Clear Politics Has Huckabee leading the pack nationally. Through Jan 6, here’s the RCP Average based on the national polls:
Huckabee – 20.7
McCain – 20.0
Giuliani – 19.0
Romney – 12.0
Thompson – 10.7
Paul – 3.7
Spread: Huckabee +0.7
In a related RCP article, John Ellis says Huckabee came away with more than just a 3rd place showing in New Hampshire.
Huckabee Has Momentum
By John Ellis
Iowa was grand for former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, but New Hampshire was a bonanza. He cast his bread upon the waters there and though he finished a distant third, it was returned manifold. The one thing that Huckabee cannot afford, at this stage of the race, is head-to-head defeat. He needs at least two “strong” candidates in the field while he puts together the pieces of his Republican proletariat coalition.
What New Hampshire delivered last night was a revitalized Sen. John McCain, which makes Michigan a three-way race, which makes Gov. Huckabee’s campaign there viable. If ever there was an electorate that is ripe for Gov. Huckabee’s mix of economic populism and compassionate Christianity, it’s down-trodden Michigan Republican primary voters. McCain won there in 2000 with strong support from Independents and he will direct all of his efforts at getting those independents to double down, one last time. Romney will throw everything he has at Michigan, to avoid elimination. Given a McCain surge and a Romney splurge, it’s not hard to imagine a three-way split, with Huckabee doing surprisingly well in the collar counties around Detroit and drawing from the well of his base in the western and northwestern counties. Who knows, he might even win Michigan, which would set up South Carolina for a kill.
Read its entirety here