Interesting read. It shows that Huckabee is unstoppable at this point…
It was a busy week in the race for the GOP nomination. John McCain picked up key endorsements, Mike Huckabee picked up a campaign manager, Mitt Romney decided to go negative on Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani moved to rebuild his support in Florida, and Fred Thompson moved to Iowa for the duration.
Despite all the activity, one key fact now dominates every campaign–the rise of Mike Huckabee has thrown the race for the Republican nomination is disarray.
It is not possible to know who will emerge as the nominee or when the nominee will be determined. In fact, there is a growing possibility that the nomination will not be determined on Super Tuesday, February 5. Ironically, in a year when politicians in many states scrambled to move their primaries forward so that they could have more influence, the later voting states may finally determine the nominee.
About all we know for certain at this point is that the chattering class and campaign strategists are still struggling to understand Republican Primary voters. So far, they have missed the mark as badly as the political class misread the public mood on immigration earlier this year.
For the seven days ending December 16, Huckabee enjoyed a slight lead in national polling over the other Republican hopefuls. He currently leads in Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida. He is tied for the lead in Michigan. Romney leads in New Hampshire. Rasmussen Reports will release new polling from South Carolina, Iowa, and New Hampshire this week.
Nationally, Huckabee, attracted roughly the same percentage of support from Republicans and from Independent voters likely to take part in a GOP primary. Giuliani places second among Republican voters, McCain is second among Independents. However, Independent voters are still much more interested in the Democratic Nomination contest.
Nationwide, Huckabee attracts 30% of conservative voters. Giuliani earns 16%, Romney 14%, and Thompson 13%.
Among moderates and the very small number of liberal voters likely to vote in a GOP primary, Giuliani leads with 23% followed by McCain at 17% and Romney at 16%.
Among men, it’s Huckabee 23%, Giuliani 20%, and Thompson 14%. Among women, it’s Huckabee 24%, Romney 17%, and Giuliani 15%.
Giuliani is stronger among younger votes, Romney among those who used to be young. Huckabee leads them both among all age groups at the moment.
What’s the bottom line? A week ago, Rasmussen Reports noted that there were five candidates who still had a shot at winning the nomination—Huckabee, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, John McCain, and Fred Thompson. For each, it was easier to see how they would lose than win—and some obviously had a better chance than others–but there was at least a credible path to victory for each of the five. That’s essentially where things stand today.
Rasmussen Reports conducts national telephone surveys on the Presidential race every night and releases updated data from our Presidential Tracking Poll by noon each day. Those results are based upon a four-day rolling average and provide a quick update on the race.
In addition to the daily tracking poll, Rasmussen Reports provides weekly results to provide a longer-term overview of the race. These updates are based upon nightly telephone surveys. Results are reported based upon interviews conducted on the seven days up to and including the night before posting.
For the seven days ending December 16, 2007 show that Mike Huckabee earns 23% of the vote while Rudy Giuliani attracts 18%. Mitt Romney is at 15% while Fred Thompson is at 12% and John McCain is the preferred candidate for 11%. Ron Paul’s support for the week is at 6%, Tom Tancredo is at 2%, Duncan Hunter earns 1% and 12% are undecided (review history of weekly results).
The seven day results typically include interviews with more than 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters. This includes both Republicans and those independents likely to vote in a Republicans Primary. In some state primaries, independent voters are allowed to participate in party primaries while in others they are excluded. The margin of sampling error for the weekly update is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Updates prior to July 16 were based upon four days of polling conducted the Monday through Thursday preceding release.